Oscar Predictions, Part II

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

The front runner for all of awards season has been Jennifer Hudson. As the big day approaches, I’m becoming less certain that she has a lock on this race. She has won nearly every award leading up to the big one, she took a supporting role and made it feel like a lead by stealing every scene she’s in and nearly all of the buzz behind this movie has been fueled by her performance. I think all that hype is what may be her downfall. As I said, she’s won almost all the awards up until now, so the Academy may choose to honor another actor. Think about this: Brokeback Mountain was the odds on favourite last year until Crash swooped in.

So who do I think may just steal Hudson’s thunder? Adriana Barraza – for her harrowing performance in Babel. I posted about her a few months back after I saw the film and stated that she deserved to be recognized. She endured brutal physical conditions and put her life in jeopardy for this role. It paid off in the form of a nomination. But five months down the line, I’m still just as moved by that performance. If anyone stands a chance of swiping the award from under Hudson’s feet, it’s definitely her.

Barraza’s co-star, Rinko Kikuchi, gave a haunting performance, as well. She spoke volumes without uttering nearly a single word. I remember cringing during her scenes. Not because her acting was poor, but because it was so well that I actually felt for her character. While no doubt an extraordinary performance, I don’t see this winning her an Oscar. I do; however, see it hurting Barraza’s chances since they are nominated for the same film.

As for Abigail Breslin, I think the nomination is her award. Yeah, she gave an exceptional performance, but I feel like there isn’t enough buzz to push her to a win. And last but not least, Cate Blanchett won in this category two years ago for a better performance. Granted, she’s brilliant in everything she does, but this was definitely a more subtle role. Besides, I think Notes… is more Judi’s film.

My prediction: Jennifer Hudson (will win); Adriana Barraza (should win)

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Eddie Murphy seems to have the edge in this category, although I’m still at a loss as to why. It was an okay performance in my opinion, but most people I’ve talked to can’t seem to stop talking about how great it was. Honestly, while I didn’t enjoy the film all that much, I think Alan Arkin should win out over Eddie. He made his unlikable character likable, something Eddie wasn’t capable of doing (in my opinion).

The other nominees really aren’t in the running for the big win, as far as I’m concerned. Wahlberg wasn’t on screen nearly enough. While Judi Dench snagged a Best Supporting Actress award for her performance in Shakespeare In Love on eight minutes of screen time, she stole every scene she was in. Hers are still my favourite in that film. Wahlberg didn’t steal any scenes or make enough of an impression to go all the way, but, then again, that hasn't stopped the Academy in the past. As for Haley and Hounsou, I haven’t seen the movies they are in, but I haven’t heard enough buzz about them to make me think they can sneak in a win.

My prediction: Eddie Murphy (will win), Alan Arkin (should win)