Oscar Predictions, Part I

In anticipation of the Oscars this Sunday, I have decided to try my hand at predicting the winners. Today I’m focusing on Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

This is by far the category most difficult to predict, as there is no clear front runner. I was initially leaning toward Babel, if only for the fact that it is the only one that seems to meet all the necessary requirements for this award. With inter-weaving storylines on a global scale, lots of pain and suffering and solid performances, it seemed poised for the top prize from the get-go. However, it seems most voters don’t have much a soft spot for it and everyone I've talked to finds it far too depressing. I’m still rooting for this film, but I feel it has probably grown a little stale and is being edged out by…

Little Miss Sunshine. The little indie movie that could. While I honestly didn’t enjoy this film as much as I expected to considering all the buzz it has been garnering since its release, there is no doubt that its momentum has been building. It nabbed the SAG award for best ensemble and the Writer’s Guild award for original screenplay. It’s also the brightest of the bunch, as the remaining four nominees have much darker and more serious tones. While the Academy does tend to favor dramas in this category, they occasionally reward lighter fare (i.e. - Shakespeare In Love).

And The Departed. This highly intense (and graphic) action film boasts an incredible cast, a tight script and a director at the top of his game. And while not always a factor, it’s by far the most popular having grossed more than $130 million domestically. Of course, some might consider simply honoring the director.

The two remaining films, Letters from Iwo Jima and The Queen, are still contenders (obviously), but don’t pose too much of a threat to the other three. The Queen is more a vehicle for it’s leading lady, Helen Mirren. While it is the freshest amongst the nominees, the last minute entry Letters… doesn’t seem to have the necessary momentum needed.

My prediction: w/ a slight edge, The Departed

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

If Scorsese doesn’t win, it’ll be the major upset of the evening (yes, even more than if Jennifer Hudson loses). A return to form not only won over moviegoers, and despite claims that this was never intended to be an awards contender, it managed to wind up with five nominations overall. Unless he's doomed to forever be a bridesmaid, it's about time the Academy honor this man. And with one of his finest works to date, it's perfect timing.

My prediction: If you weren't able to figure it out, Martin Scorsese